Global Risks: Are AI and Nuclear Weapons Threatening Our Future?

Humanity faces a series of serious challenges that could threaten our existence by the year 2100. According to a new assessment by The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health, the most dangerous risks include the malicious use of artificial intelligence and the possibility of nuclear conflict. These two threats top a list of 17 major issues that could impact human health and survival over the next 75 years.

The experts behind the report explained that these risks do not exist in isolation. Instead, they interact with one another, meaning they must be addressed as a group. Prof Christopher Murray, a leader of the commission, stated that the decisions made by current world leaders will shape the wellbeing of the next generation. The report used a specific measurement called disability-adjusted life years (Dalys) to calculate how many years of healthy life might be lost due to sickness, disability, or early death caused by these various threats.

Regarding artificial intelligence, the report warns that the malicious use of technology—such as creating new biological weapons—could be catastrophic. Similarly, nuclear conflict remains a major concern. The report notes that a nuclear war could cause a “nuclear famine” by sending particles into the upper atmosphere. This would block sunlight, damaging food supplies across the globe. While the likelihood of these events remains low, the report warns that the scale of harm would be an apocalypse for humanity.

Beyond these high-tech threats, the commission identified other “major catastrophic threats.” These include air pollution, the rise of diseases that are resistant to medicine, childhood malnutrition, and the ongoing climate crisis. The report suggests that taking action to limit global heating could prevent the loss of nearly two billion years of healthy life. However, the study also points to human-made problems like declining international health aid. Many wealthy nations have recently announced cuts to this spending, which could have a devastating impact on regions like sub-Saharan Africa.

While the report focuses on long-term global risks, some commentators argue that we are ignoring immediate dangers. Writing for The Guardian, Simon Tisdall suggests that the world has become too fixated on the future risks of AI while ignoring the immediate threat of nuclear weapons. He points to the current global situation, noting that the frequent use of nuclear threats by leaders like Vladimir Putin creates a dangerous environment. According to Tisdall, nuclear deterrence—the idea that countries will not attack if they fear a strong response—only works if both sides believe the threat is real. If leaders stop believing these threats, it increases the risk of a dangerous miscalculation.

Furthermore, the political landscape adds to this uncertainty. The report mentions that Donald Trump has expressed skepticism regarding the dangers of AI. Some observers believe this lack of concern reflects a broader trend of ignoring warnings about global catastrophes. In the view of the commission, however, the goal of the report is not to scare people, but to provide policymakers with a clear picture of what they are facing. Ibrahim Abubakar, a professor of infectious disease and a member of the commission, emphasized that they are starting from the idea that if leaders act now, they can make a real difference.

Ultimately, the commission believes that for a threat to be included on their list, it must have potential solutions. This provides a sense of hope, even when discussing the end of humanity. Whether it is reducing carbon emissions to fight climate change or creating better international agreements to manage AI and nuclear weapons, the experts argue that there is a “realistic route to act.” The challenge for the coming decades will be whether global leaders can cooperate effectively to address these interconnected risks before they become impossible to manage. As the report concludes, the health of the future depends on the choices made today.