Global Trade Faces New Challenges as Shipping Routes Become Strategic Weapons

Ten weeks after the start of the conflict in Iran, the global economy is facing a difficult test. Since Iran blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, experts have warned of a major energy crisis and a possible global recession. Despite these dire warnings, many governments and stock markets have remained surprisingly calm. However, as The Guardian Business reports, a growing gap exists between this quiet market behavior and the reality of a potential supply chain crisis.

For many countries, the impact is already being felt. In Asia, nations that rely heavily on oil from the Gulf are encouraging their citizens to save energy, with some even starting to ration supplies. In Europe, the situation is different but still challenging. Drivers are paying more for petrol and diesel, and central banks are considering raising interest rates—the cost of borrowing money—to control inflation. While global supply chains have not yet collapsed, the pressure is building as emergency stocks of oil and other important goods are slowly used up.

Companies are beginning to feel the strain. The carmaker Lucid Motors, for example, recently warned that the war has disrupted the supply of materials needed for its manufacturing processes. According to The Guardian Business, the company expects to see a significant increase in the prices of raw materials. While some executives remain optimistic, others in the industry warn that many businesses are being too relaxed. One senior executive noted that companies are "playing with fire" by hoping the situation will resolve itself quickly.

This sense of calm may come from lessons learned during the coronavirus pandemic. Many businesses have spent the last few years trying to map their supply chains to better understand where they are vulnerable. However, experts suggest that many large companies still lack a clear view of their deeper supply networks. If a company does not know where its parts come from at the third or fourth level of its supply chain, it may be unable to react when those supplies suddenly stop.

The danger is not limited to the Strait of Hormuz. The weaponization of shipping channels—using these narrow waterways as a way to gain political advantage—has become a major concern for global policymakers. According to Deutsche Welle (DW), there is growing anxiety about the security of other maritime chokepoints, such as the Strait of Malacca. This route is vital for trade between East Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, accounting for about 22% of international maritime trade.

Political scientist Nikolaus Scholik, speaking to DW, explained that we are seeing a fundamental change in how power works. He noted that individual states now believe they can legally control strategically important sea lanes to exert influence over others. This trend is dangerous because it turns essential trade routes into tools for geopolitical pressure. Christian Wirth, an analyst at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, added that the importance of a route depends on how hard it is to find an alternative. The more essential a path is, the more power those who control it can hold.

Experts are also looking beyond the current conflict. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has described this trend as the "return of geography," where the physical location of trade routes becomes a central issue in international relations. Some analysts suggest that other areas, such as the Taiwan Strait, could become even more significant than the Strait of Hormuz if tensions rise in those regions.

Ultimately, the situation remains uncertain. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen tomorrow, experts warn that it could take months for global supply chains to return to normal. As stockpiles continue to shrink, the risk of disruption grows. For now, the world waits to see if these vital maritime routes will remain open or if they will continue to be used as levers of power in an increasingly unstable global environment.