Rising Temperatures Threaten Europe’s Food Supply and Prices

Farmers across Europe are warning of a serious drop in food production as extreme heat, drought, and wildfires damage crops. From maize to fresh salads, the continent’s agricultural sector is struggling to keep up with the changing climate. As temperatures reach new record highs, the cost of many basic food items is expected to rise, creating new economic challenges for both producers and consumers.

The vegetable growers association, Légumes de France, reported that thousands of tonnes of produce have been lost. This includes common items like carrots, onions, garlic, and salad leaves. In some cases, production is expected to be cut in half because of the lack of rain. These losses represent tens of millions of euros in value, highlighting the scale of the problem for the European food market.

Wine production is also facing a difficult year. In famous French regions such as Champagne, Bordeaux, and Burgundy, the scorching weather has slowed the growth of grapes. According to The Guardian, producers in Champagne expect the earliest harvest in history, with picking likely to begin in mid-August. This is about a month earlier than what was normal just a few decades ago. Furthermore, grape yields are expected to be about 10% smaller than last year.

Cereal crops are also suffering. In Spain, the ministry of agriculture predicts that the 2026-27 cereal harvest will fall significantly, dropping from 24 million tonnes last year to just over 18.5 million tonnes. This forecast was made even before the recent wildfires caused additional damage to the land. The European Union has also lowered its harvest predictions for many other products. Expectations for sunflowers, which are essential for cooking oils, have fallen by 7%. Grain maize is down 6%, while potatoes and soya beans have seen their production forecasts trimmed by 3%.

Olive oil, which has already been expensive for some time, is expected to see another price increase. Producers are struggling with a combination of extreme heat, drought, and fires. In countries like Greece, Italy, and Portugal, olive groves have been burned. Even the trees that were not touched by fire have suffered from poor air quality and ash. Sarah Vachon, the founder of the Citizens of Soil olive oil group, noted that unless the weather improves soon, prices will likely rise in the autumn because there will be less fruit available to make oil.

Despite these challenges, the impact is not the same everywhere. Some countries have been more fortunate. For example, Romania has seen more rainfall, and Italy’s wheat crop has shown that it can be resilient, or able to recover well from difficult conditions. However, the ASAJA agricultural trade body explained that the damage is widespread. They noted that fires have hit orchards, vineyards, and greenhouses, affecting everything from almonds and avocados to citrus fruits. A spokesperson for the group said that while lower production might mean fewer exports, the main concern for the industry is the rising cost of production rather than limits on international trade.

This situation is especially difficult because the price of olive oil had already been high for two years. This previous spike was caused by a mix of high demand, dry weather, and the spread of pests and diseases. While prices had started to drift down slightly, they remain high in many stores. In the UK, for example, the average price for a one-litre bottle of extra virgin olive oil remains above £7 and has begun to climb again in recent months.

Looking ahead, the agricultural sector faces a long-term challenge. Even in places like Spain, where farmers are well-adapted to hot and dry conditions, the current weather is testing the limits of their systems. Farmers there have been using more irrigation—a system of moving water to land to help crops grow—and better water storage to manage the drought. However, as the climate continues to change, the industry must find new ways to protect its harvests. For now, consumers should prepare for the possibility of higher grocery bills as the effects of this summer's heat continue to ripple through the global economy.