A 'Super' El Niño Could Make Food Prices Rise Until 2028

The world is facing a new challenge that could make the price of food rise for several years. Economists are warning that a 'super' El Niño weather cycle, which is expected to begin this year, may cause a severe shock to global food prices that could last until 2028. This weather event happens when changes in wind patterns allow warmer water to spread across the Pacific Ocean. Scientists say there is a very high chance that this event will lead to extreme heatwaves, heavy flooding, and stronger storms around the world.

According to The Guardian Environment, this 'super' El Niño comes at a difficult time. Many households are already struggling with high living costs. The situation is made worse by the ongoing war in Iran, which has already pushed global food prices to their highest level in three years. Experts note that the world is now facing two major problems at the same time: conflict-related supply issues and extreme weather linked to global heating.

This is not the first time El Niño has caused problems. In the past, this natural phenomenon has led to serious issues for farmers and food supplies. More than a century ago, a very severe El Niño caused terrible droughts in many countries, including China, Brazil, Egypt, India, and parts of Africa. Today, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that the 2026-27 cycle could be even more severe than previous events. There is a 63% chance that sea temperatures will rise significantly, which would increase the risk of droughts and floods that destroy harvests.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have predicted that the strength of this El Niño could cause a 15.8% increase in global food commodity prices. This would have a 'knock-on effect'—a situation where one event causes a series of other events—around the world. For example, consumers in Europe could see food prices rise by 1.3%. However, experts say the full impact will not be felt immediately. Because of the different times it takes to grow and harvest crops, the consequences of this weather event may take until the second half of 2028 to be fully realized.

There are other factors that make the situation more complicated. The movement of food around the world depends on canals and rivers. If water levels in these areas change because of the weather, it will be harder to ship food to where it is needed. Furthermore, analysts at UBS point out that El Niño does not affect agriculture in the same way everywhere. While it creates 'losers'—areas that suffer from bad weather—it might also create 'winners' in some regions where the warmer weather helps crops grow better. Despite this, the overall effect is expected to be negative for the global food supply chain.

This situation is also worrying for central banks, which are the organizations that manage a country's money and interest rates. If food prices go up, it creates a new type of inflation—a general increase in prices and a fall in the value of money. This 'climateflation' means that central banks might need to keep interest rates at high levels to stop prices from rising too quickly. Analysts at the Italian bank UniCredit noted that recent heatwaves in Europe are a reminder that the climate is already changing. They believe that El Niño will add a new layer of pressure to an already fragile system.

In summary, the combination of war, supply chain problems, and the arrival of a 'super' El Niño creates a difficult future for global food prices. As the world waits to see how strong the weather event will be, experts are watching closely to see how it will affect the food on our tables. While some areas may be luckier than others, the global economy is preparing for a long period of uncertainty that could last for several years.