One Nation Party Wins Historic Seat, Changing Australian Politics

The Australian political landscape has changed significantly following a historic byelection result in the seat of Farrer. On Saturday night, the right-wing populist party One Nation won its first-ever seat in the federal lower house. David Farley, the One Nation candidate, defeated the independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe. This victory is a major turning point for the party, which has historically struggled with internal stability, but now claims it is "here for the long haul."

For the Coalition—the group formed by the Liberal and National parties—the result was described as catastrophic. According to The Guardian, the Liberals saw their support drop by more than 30%. The party’s primary vote, which is the percentage of people who choose them as their first preference, fell below 13%. The Nationals also performed poorly, polling just under 10%. This loss is particularly significant because the Coalition had held the seat of Farrer for 76 years.

Following the defeat, pressure is mounting on the opposition leader, Angus Taylor. He has been in his position for only three months, but the Farrer result has caused internal rumblings and doubt among his colleagues. Some members of the Liberal Party are privately questioning his leadership. According to The Guardian, Taylor stated that the party would take "hard lessons" from the loss. He suggested that the result was partly due to recent internal chaos and a shift away from traditional values within the party.

However, not everyone agrees with Taylor’s assessment. Sussan Ley, the former leader who was replaced by Taylor, issued a statement suggesting that the party is in a worse position now than it was before. She pointed out that when Taylor took over, he said the Liberal Party needed to "change or die." Ley noted that the Farrer result shows that this statement is even more true today. Some Liberal MPs have blamed the leadership change for the current situation, calling the loss the "price of undermining and destroying" Ley’s leadership.

Another point of conflict was the party's decision to support the One Nation candidate on their "how-to-vote" cards. These are cards given to voters at polling stations to show them how to rank candidates. By placing the One Nation candidate ahead of the independent candidate, some Liberal MPs felt the party betrayed its own values. They believe this decision gave their supporters permission to switch their vote to the right-wing party. Taylor defended this choice, claiming it was what the local Liberal voters in Farrer wanted.

One Nation’s success is not a surprise to everyone. Recent opinion polls have shown a steady increase in support for the party since the 2025 federal election. This trend is creating what some describe as an "existential threat"—a threat to the very existence—of the establishment conservative parties. Pauline Hanson, the leader of One Nation, told Sky News that her party is now challenging the major political parties. She accused these parties of being arrogant and taking voters for granted. Hanson stated that she wants to bring prosperity back to Australia and that her party is ready to lead.

Looking ahead, the Liberal Party faces a difficult path. Moderate members of the party are worried that the current leadership is too focused on reacting to One Nation’s agenda, especially regarding immigration. Instead of moving the party toward the political center to attract more voters, they fear the party is becoming too narrow in its focus. While there is no immediate threat to Taylor’s position as leader, the party is clearly struggling to find its way after such a significant loss.

The Farrer byelection serves as a clear warning to the major parties. Voters are increasingly looking for alternatives, and the traditional dominance of the Liberal and National parties is being challenged. As the party begins its postmortem—a process of examining what went wrong—the debate over whether to change their policies or double down on their current direction will likely continue to cause tension within the Coalition.