The Hidden Climate Cost of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is often praised for its ability to help the environment, but a new study shows a more complicated reality. While many people focus on how AI can make renewable energy more efficient, researchers have found that the technology is currently doing more to increase the production of coal, oil, and gas. This new report provides a clear look at how AI is changing the energy sector, suggesting that its impact on climate change may be worse than previously thought.

According to The Guardian, researchers looked at 64 different scenarios to understand how AI affects global energy. They discovered that AI-driven productivity gains—improvements in how much work can be done—are leading to more planet-heating pollution. The study estimates that these activities cause yearly carbon pollution to rise by between 0.47 and 1.8 gigatonnes. This amount is equal to about 1% to 5% of the total yearly emissions from the entire energy sector.

In the past, many studies only looked at the positive side of AI, such as how it helps manage electricity grids or reduces the downtime of wind and solar power. However, these studies often ignored the extra pollution caused by using AI to drill for oil or extract gas. Lynn Kaack, a professor at the Hertie School, noted that previous research completely left out the picture of AI causing these increases in emissions. She explained that most earlier work only compared the energy used by data centers to the savings AI provides, without looking at the full impact of increased fossil fuel production.

For the climate to benefit from AI, the technology would need to help renewable energy much more than it helps fossil fuels. The researchers found that for emissions to stay the same, the productivity gains for clean energy would need to be at least four times greater than those for fossil fuels. Currently, this is not happening. Holly Alpine, a co-author of the study, explained that fossil fuel applications of AI are already happening at a large scale. In contrast, many renewable energy projects using AI are still in the early, experimental stages.

Major energy companies are already seeing the financial benefits of using these new tools. The International Energy Agency estimates that AI could increase the amount of oil and gas that companies can technically recover by 5%. It could also cut the costs of deepwater offshore projects by 10%. Some executives have even described this shift as the next “fracking boom,” referring to the process of using high-pressure liquid to release oil or gas from underground rock.

Saudi Aramco, one of the world’s largest oil companies, stated that it has embedded AI into almost everything it does to increase the number of wells it operates. Similarly, the energy company Equinor recently attributed 27 new discoveries on the Norwegian continental shelf to new seismic technologies and AI. In a video presentation, the company highlighted how AI was key to their success, helping them with data interpretation and planning new wells. These findings include the Lofn and Langermann oil wells, which Equinor described as their largest discovery in 2025.

Financial experts are also tracking these changes. Rystad Energy, an independent research company, estimated that between 2026 and 2030, digital tools and AI will create nearly $500 billion in value for fossil fuel companies. This value comes from more efficient operations, increased production, and faster development timelines. Analysts at the firm noted that these returns are already visible, pointing to hundreds of millions of dollars in savings reported by companies like Equinor and Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc.

This update follows earlier reports that highlighted the tension between AI’s technological potential and its environmental footprint. As AI continues to grow, the debate over its role in the energy transition is likely to intensify. While the technology offers tools to optimize clean energy, its current use in the fossil fuel industry presents a significant challenge for global climate goals. For now, the evidence suggests that without significant changes, AI will continue to act as a powerful tool for the expansion of traditional energy sources, making it harder to reduce the world’s reliance on oil and gas.