Global Food Prices Face New Pressure from 'Super' El Niño

A powerful weather pattern known as a 'super' El Niño is set to hit the world this year, and experts are warning that it could cause a major shock to global food prices. This event, which involves warmer water spreading across the Pacific Ocean, is expected to be one of the strongest on record. Economists suggest that the consequences of this weather cycle could last until 2028, creating a long-term challenge for households already struggling with high living costs.

This update follows earlier reports from July 2026, which first highlighted the risks posed by this climate event. According to The Guardian, the world is currently facing two major problems at once: the ongoing war in Iran and the threat of extreme weather linked to global heating. The war has already pushed food prices to their highest level in three years. Now, the arrival of a 'super' El Niño threatens to make these supply chain problems even worse.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed that warming conditions are taking hold in the Pacific. They estimate a 63% chance that sea surface temperatures will rise more than 2C above normal levels later this year. This change in temperature is expected to cause heatwaves, flooding, and storms, all of which can damage crops and disrupt the global food supply network.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have predicted that the strength of this El Niño could cause a 15.8% surge in global food commodity prices. These are the raw materials like wheat, corn, and rice that are used to make the food we buy. This rise would have a 'knock-on effect'—a situation where one event causes a series of other events—across the world. For example, consumers in the eurozone could see their food prices rise by 1.3% as a result of these global shifts.

However, the full impact of this weather event will not be felt immediately. Experts at Goldman Sachs explained that the consequences could take until the second half of 2028 to be fully realized. This delay happens because different crops have different planting, growing, and harvesting cycles. Additionally, logistical challenges, such as changes in water levels in canals and rivers used to ship food, will take time to affect the final price on store shelves.

Not every part of the world will be affected in the same way. Analysts at the Swiss bank UBS noted that El Niño does not affect agriculture uniformly. Instead, it reshapes rainfall and temperature patterns, creating different outcomes for different areas. While some regions may face devastating droughts, others might experience weather conditions that are actually helpful for their specific crops. Historically, severe El Niño events have caused catastrophic droughts in places like Brazil, India, and southern Africa, leading to serious food shortages.

This situation is also causing concern for central banks, which are the institutions that manage a country's money and interest rates. Because the rising cost of food is a major part of inflation—the general increase in prices over time—the prospect of a new price shock is making it difficult for these banks to lower interest rates. Analysts at the Italian bank UniCredit wrote that El Niño puts 'climateflation' back on the agenda. This term refers to the way climate change and extreme weather can directly cause prices to go up.

As the world prepares for this 'super' El Niño, the combination of war-related supply issues and climate-driven weather events creates a complex environment. With fertilizer and energy supplies already limited, even small disruptions to the food supply could lead to significant problems. For now, governments and businesses are watching the Pacific closely, hoping to understand how these shifting weather patterns will change the cost of living for people around the globe in the coming years.